Friday, December 23, 2011

The Accuracy of Political Experts

Wharton professor Philip Tetlock on political experts:
The finding that people found most surprising from my work on expert judgement, and in particular the work on expert political judgement, was that there was somewhat of an inverse relationship between how accurate experts were and how famous they were, that the media tended to be drawn to experts who offered very short and sharp soundbites. And those tended to be experts who, in my study, were somewhat less accurate.
From this short interview:

An important reminder as the American presidential race heats up!

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